An assessment of the health implications of aviation emissions regulations

An exploration of the health implications of aviation emissions regulations is made by assessing the results of a study of aviation's effects on United States air quality mandated by the Energy Policy Act of 2005. The Energy Policy Act study results estimated that aviation is responsible for 160 yearly incidences (with a 90% confidence interval of 64 to 270 incidences) of premature mortality of adults age 30 and over ($882 million in year 2001 dollars, with a 91% CI of $196 to $1830 million) due to exposure to particulate matter below 2.5 /im in size (PM2.5) in the continental U.S. as reported by the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Strong regional differences were noted; for instance, 18% of the total health incidences and costs occurred in Los Angeles County. Aviation was estimated to decrease ozone concentrations, causing small premature mortality disbenefits (health effects avoided due to the presence of aviation) of approximately 2 yearly premature mortality incidences ($9 million). Primary particulate matter values in the Energy Policy Act study's emissions inventory had been generated using a conservatively biased version of the First Order Approximation method version 3.0 (FOA3), known as FOA3a, and the emissions of sulfur oxides (SOx) had been incorrectly computed (underestimated by approximately 15%). To quantify the effects of these differences on health impacts, a comparison was made with a second inventory generated by CSSI, Inc. using FOA3. Based on the comparison, it is estimated that aviation was responsible for 140 to 160 yearly incidences of premature mortality from exposure to PM. 46% to 69% of the incidences were estimated to be due to changes in concentrations of ammonium sulfate secondary PM from SOx, while ammonium nitrate secondary PM was estimated to be responsible for 18% to 20%.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2008

Author dc:creator

• Sequeira, Christopher J

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Ian A. Waitz.

• Aeronautics and Astronautics.
• Technology and Policy Program.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/43084

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/43084