Bombs and ballots : estimating the effect of the Madrid bombings on the March 2004 general elections in Spain

Whether or not the Madrid March 11th 2004 terrorist attacks affected the outcome of the Spanish general elections three days later has been the source of great controversy in the last years. This paper analyzes Spanish electoral data for the 2000 and 2004 Congressional elections, comparing the marginal effects of the proportion of voters who voted before the elections (and therefore, before the bombings in 2004) on the voting pattern in both years. A linear approach finds mild evidence that bombs undermined support for the incumbent conservative party and increased the share of the vote for the opposition socialists, similar to previous findings by Montalvo (2006) using a natural experiment design. A non-linear approach using binomial and multinomial logit models is not successful and yields no conclusive indications on how the attacks affected the outcome of the elections.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2008

Author dc:creator

• Díez-Amigo, Sandro

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Jerry Hausman.

• Economics.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/42395

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/42395