On the evaluation of human error probabilities for post-initiating events

Quantification of human error probabilities (HEPs) for the purpose of human reliability assessment (HRA) is very complex. Because of this complexity, the state of the art includes a variety of HRA models, each with its own objectives, scope and quantification method. In addition to varying methods of quantification, each model is replete with its own terminology and categorizations, therefore making comparison across models exceedingly difficult. This paper demonstrates the capabilities and limitations of two prominent HRA models: the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) HRA Calculator (using the HRC/ORE and Cause Based Decision Tree methods), used widely in industry, and A Technique for Human Error Analysis (ATHEANA), developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This demonstration includes a brief description of the two models, a comparison of what they incorporate in HEP quantification, a "translation" of terminologies, and examples of their capabilities via the Halden Task Complexity experiments. Possible ways to incorporate learning from simulator experiments, such as those at Halden, to improve the quantification methods are also addressed. The primary difference between ATHEANA and the EPRI HRA Calculator is in their objectives. EPRI's objective is to provide a method that is not overly resource intensive and can be used by a PRA analyst without significant HRA experience. Consequently, EPRI quantifies HEPs using time reliability curves (TRCs) and cause based decision trees (CBDT). ATHEANA attempts to find contexts where operators are likely to fail without recovery and quantify the associated HEP. This includes finding how operators can further degrade the plant condition while still believing their actions are correct. ATHEANA quantifies HEPs through an expert judgment elicitation process.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2006

Author dc:creator

• Presley, Mary R

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• George E. Apostolakis.

• Nuclear Science and Engineering.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/41274

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/41274