Promotional forecasting in the grocery retail business

Predicting customer demand in the highly competitive grocery retail business has become extremely difficult, especially for promotional items. The difficulty in promotional forecasting has resulted from numerous internal and external factors that affect the demand patterns. It has also resulted from multiple levels of hierarchy that involve different groups in the organization as well as different methods and systems. Moreover, judgments from the forecasters are critical to the accuracy of the forecasts, while the value of tweaking the forecast results is yet to be determined. In this business, the forecasters generally have a high incentive to over-forecast in order to meet the corporate goal of maximizing customer satisfaction. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the effectiveness of promotional forecasting, identify the factors contributing to forecast accuracy, and propose suggestions for improving forecasts. In light of this objective, we used WMPE and WMAPE as the measures of forecast accuracy, and conducted analysis of promotional forecast accuracy from different point of views.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2006

Authors dc:creator

• Koottatep, Pakawkul
• Li, Jinqian

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Larry Lapide.

• Engineering Systems Division.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/36142

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/36142