Examining the influence of civilian casualties on insurgent attacks in Iraq

Although there have been several attempts to tabulate civilian casualties in the Iraq War, the effect of these casualties on the Iraqi population and insurgent organizations has not been thoroughly examined. From the literature of the motives and mechanisms behind the formation and expansion of insurgencies, as well as the culture and values of Iraqi society, it is expected that increased civilian casualties will create grievance among the population, causing support for insurgents and increased attacks on coalition forces. This paper statistically analyzes data on Iraqi civilian and coalition force casualties to determine if there is a causal relationship between the two variables. It also recognizes the limitations and potential biases of the available data. Control variables are included in the statistical analysis to compare the influence of civilian casualties to competing theories of insurgency formation. Analysis demonstrates that while civilian casualties and coalition casualties have a positive relationship, significant causality between the two variables cannot be established. Alternative hypotheses examine unique factors in Anbar and Baghdad provinces and the role of focus events in insurgent activity. The paper concludes with recommendations for further study.

Department dc:contributor.department

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Political Science.

Grantor dc:publisher

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Year dc:date.issued

2006

Author dc:creator

• Karnis, Jessica Eve

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Roger Petersen.

• Political Science.

Statement dc:rights

• M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35521

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/35521