Undergoverned Spaces: An Investigation of Underlying Dynamics

Undergoverned spaces are regions where hierarchical control structures are contested, with two or more governance groups competing for territory and the allegiance of the local population. These regions are notable for the fierce competition that exists between the various governance groups and potential risks to the international order that they represent. Further, the needs of the local population in these regions often go unaddressed or, even worse, locals become targets for exploitation by the various governance groups, both the centralized state and any unsanctioned, non-centralized arbiters of control within the region's borders. For these reasons, the academic study of undergoverned spaces as competitive arenas are of increasing interest to policy and decision makers, particularly as pertains to stability operations and international aid attempts. Despite this, the study of undergoverned spaces remains complicated due to the lack of readily available data. Due to the lack of infrastructure and accompanying access concerns, such as insufficient population census data or lack of accurate records pertaining to insurgent activities, extracting reliable and meaningful data from these regions is exceedingly difficult, if not impossible. This lack of data is a problem that agent-based modeling (ABM) is particularly well suited to address due to the ability to grow systems from the bottom-up and simulate emergent behavior. This dissertation project develops an agent-based model of an undergoverned space, specifically with two governance groups caught in tight competition for territorial control and local allegiance. One group represents the centralized state authority while the other represents a rival governance group, both competing for access within the region. The key driver of this model is the local population, which has the ability to move to areas with preferable dynamics and who will switch allegiances depending on their needs. This research explores the theory underpinning these unique regions and seeks a better understanding of the applications for international aid attempts by developing an agent-based model based on a foundational theories of undergoverned spaces. The results demonstrate the innate dynamics of ungoverned spaces that keep governance groups in a state of tight competition, while also implicating the conditions under which one group or the other may be able to gain the upper hand. Further, the research proposes four quantifiable measures of undergoverned spaces based on theoretical properties that have previously been largely qualitative, including ungovernability, capacity, legitimacy, and conduciveness.

Author

• Kastens, Marta Hansen

• agent-based model
• complex adaptive systems
• gray zones
• undergoverned
• ungoverned

Identifier

hdl:1920/13742

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:MARS:1920/13742