Forests in Conflict: A social-ecological analysis of the nexus between armed conflict and deforestation in Colombia

This dissertation explores the complex relationship between armed conflict and deforestation in Colombia through the lens of socio-ecological systems (SES). Armed groups in Colombia have historically exploited forests as strategic resources, fueling warfare, financing operations, and sheltering illicit activities. However, conflict has also produced unintended conservation outcomes, with violence rendering certain regions inaccessible. This duality underscores the need for a nuanced framework to understand the entanglement of social and ecological dynamics. The study is organised into three core chapters. Chapter 1 presents a scoping review of 40 peer-reviewed studies that integrate geospatial and network methodologies for socio-ecological analysis. It highlights emerging trends and methodological gaps in this interdisciplinary field. Chapter 2 examines the micro-dynamics of armed conflict using a Relational Event Model, revealing how interactions between armed actors evolve over time and influence conflict intensity. Chapter 3 investigates the environmental impact of conflict through a staggered two-way fixed effects model, using spatial buffers around conflict events to measure subsequent changes in forest cover. Findings indicate that while most conflict events had an insignificant effect on deforestation, certain episodes, particularly in 2003, were associated with increased forest cover, possibly due to reduced human activity or strategic conservation by armed groups. The study underscores the temporal and spatial mismatches between conflict and deforestation, and the difficulty of integrating social and ecological data at appropriate scales. Overall, this dissertation contributes to the SES literature by combining spatial, relational, and temporal approaches to disentangle the multifaceted interactions between conflict and environmental change. It offers both conceptual and methodological innovations relevant to conflict resolution, forest governance, and sustainability science. Future research should aim to improve spatial resolution, account for underreporting biases, and deepen our understanding of the feedback loops that link violence and ecosystems.<p></p>

Author dc:creator

• Laura Roldan Gomez (21040358)

• Data analysis
• Relational Event Models
• Armed Conflict
• Deforestation
• Difference in Differences

Statement dc:rights

• All rights reserved

Identifier

10779/exe.31842223.v1

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:figshare.com:article/31842223