Determinantes econômicos e não econômicos da demanda turística em Fernando de Noronha (PE): uma abordagem econométrica

Understanding and predicting tourism demand is fundamental for developing public policy planning, establishing strategies focused on specific types of demand based on their preferences, and optimizing tourism resources by companies and government entities operating in the production chain. One way to obtain this information is through econometric modeling, which consists of establishing causal structures and identifying significant factors that affect future demand. In the field of tourism, econometric models are used to capture and analyze the effects of various determinants, make more accurate predictions, and establish specifications of potential causal relationships. From this perspective, the present study aimed to analyze the interrelationships between the main economic and non-economic factors that influence the tourist demand of a destination, based on an understanding of the determining elements that explain tourist behavior under specific choice conditions. The research was based on Tourism Demand Theory to identify non-econometric elements that influence the choice of a destination. The econometric model applied was the Multiple Linear Regression model, of the general-tospecific type, proposed by Sargan (1964), with the total number of tourists in Fernando de Noronha as the dependent variable and the proxy income (visitor income bracket), proxy tourist price (IPCA inflation index), tourist spending, length of stay (number of days), and marketing communication as independent variables, in addition to non-economic variables such as intention to return, motivation, agency services, infrastructure, and quality of tourist services, for the period from 2015 to 2019. The research used secondary data extracted from the database provided by the Administration of the State District of Fernando de Noronha (ADEFN) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The data were processed in Excel and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 23.0) software. The results indicated that the model is statistically significant; However, the coefficient of determination (R²) was not satisfactory, remaining below 0.5. Economic and non-economic variables showed statistical significance, but did not fully explain the behavior of demand. Tourist demand in Fernando de Noronha is strongly influenced by economic and non-economic aspects. Among the positive aspects that strongly influence demand are the natural beauty of the beaches, tourist attractions, and the quality of tourist services. On the other hand, among the negative aspects are infrastructure, security, and medical services. Some classic demand variables, such as income, length of stay, intention to return, and spending, showed low significance in the models, contradicting the theory. It is concluded that the flow of tourist demand in Fernando de Noronha is influenced by unique destination factors, economic, non-economic, and other factors not contemplated in the analyzed model.

Grantor dc:publisher

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Year dc:date.issued

2025

Author dc:creator

• Souza, Ivanise Borges

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Marques Júnior, Sérgio

• Economia do turismo
• Fatores determinantes
• Modelagem da demanda turística
• Fernando de Noronha

Statement dc:rights

• Acesso Aberto

Language dc:language.iso

pt_BR

Repository record dc:identifier.uri

https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/69424

OAI record oai:identifier

https://repositorio.ufrn.br/server/oai/request?verb=GetRecord&metadataPrefix=dim&identifier=oai%3Arepositorio.ufrn.br%3A123456789%2F69424