Angebotsabhängige Modellierung der reisezweckspezifischen Verkehrserzeugung und ihre Anwendung auf den städtischen Freizeitverkehr

The focus of this dissertation is the development and validation of a trip generation model. Its purpose is to calculate the trip rate measured as trips per person per day as well as the proportion of the population making at least one trip per day as a function of traffic supply and socio-economic and land use variables. Since the model has to accurately and realistically respond to changes in input variables, a special emphasis was placed on the detailed description of traffic supply. Walther's resistance model developed at the Institute of Transport Studies of the Aachen University of Technology was used a basis. The model includes 15 independent variables. A special characteristic of Walther's Resistance Model is that the independent variables are not directly entered into the model but rather as a separate non-linear function based on the human perception of the effects of each supply variable. The first step consists of the development of a decision algorithm. The method used was deductive without the help of travel surveys. Note that the usual method to develop travel behaviour models is inductive, whereby the basic functional form of the model is assumed or "guessed" a priori. For the deductive method used in this dissertation self-evident facts about travel behaviour are quantified. Furthermore values of the desired functions at the limits of the domain were determined. With the help of differential equations and differential inequalities the complete functional form of the new model could be derived mathematically. In the next step routines were developed to determine supply characteristics (especially for parking and bike traffic) germane to each study area without the need for costly surveys. From a methodological standpoint these routines form the indispensable basis for the validation of the trip generation model. The consistent determination of supply characteristics is very important for the accuracy of supply driven travel demand calculations. For the third step, the validation of the theoretically derived trip generation model, both travel survey results from 20 cities in Germany and resistances calculated based on the methods developed in step 2 were employed. Before validation the calculated resistances were checked for reasonableness. This was done with the help of previously mentioned travel surveys and publicly available aggregate data (distribution of trip length, mode split, etc.). These checks together with a regression analysis for model validation confirmed the accurateness of the model over a wide range of input values. By being able to model the trip rate as a function of supply characteristics it became possible to quantify induced demand. Each change in trip generation is identical to positively or negatively induced demand. The validation of the trip generation model was first performed using all urban trips. As an additional emphasis of the dissertation the transferability of the model to certain market segments was studied. In an exemplary fashion the applicability of the model to leisure trips was researched. For this the methods to calculate the travel supply characteristics had to be further developed. That made it possible to validate the model for this particular market segment.

Grantor dc:publisher

Publikationsserver der RWTH Aachen University

Year dc:date

2002

Author dc:creator

• Oetting, Andreas

Contributors dc:contributor

• Schwanhäußer, Wulf

• info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/620
• Ingenieurwissenschaften
• Stadtverkehr
• Freizeitverkehr
• Verkehrsmodell

Statement dc:rights

• info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

Language dc:language

ger

Identifier

https://publications.rwth-aachen.de/search?p=id:%22RWTH-CONV-123530%22

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:publications.rwth-aachen.de:61918